Odds (probability) that you feel are worth a lot more than odds that you calculate.
There’s no such thing as calculating odds in real life, only for games. If you think your calculation applies to real life, it’s only because you’ve deluded yourself into thinking a game is realistic.
You cannot create a sample space out of reality. Reality cannot be enumerated.
You can feel when something is more likely in real, non-gamified situations, because we evolved for such decision making.
There’s a whole lot of “smart” sounding dumbness out there by people who don’t comprehend the foundations of the words they use.
Independent Scholar; Author of Discovered, Not Designed; Ph.D. Computational Chem; Builder of things; I study and write about science, philosophy, complexity.
